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Zimbabwe: the Road to Reform or Another Dead End?
 
International Crisis Group
27 April 2011
 
(…) Intensified violence against those deemed to be ZANU-PF enemies has exposed the limitations of Zimbabwe’s much delayed reform process and threatens to derail the Global Political Agreement (GPA). President Mugabe’s call for early elections has increased fears of a return to 2008’s violence. Prime Minister Tsvangirai has appealed for help from the region. Eventual elections are inevitable, but without credible, enforceable reforms, Zimbabwe faces another illegitimate vote and prospects of entrenched polarisation and crisis. GPA guarantors – the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and its South African-led facilitation team – have an uphill battle to secure implementation. ZANU-PF is increasingly confident it can intimidate opponents and frustrate reform, and there is waning faith, internally and externally, in MDC-T capacities. Mugabe’s health and ZANU-PF succession turmoil are further complications. Without stronger international pressure on ZANU-PF, the tenuous current coalition may collapse, triggering further violence and grave consequences for southern Africa. (…)
 
(…) RECOMMENDATIONS
 
To the Inclusive Government formed pursuant to the GPA:

1.  Cooperate fully with the recommendations in the communiqué of the 31 March 2011 SADC summit of the Organ Troika on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation.
2.  Make finalisation of the COPAC constitution exercise a priority, including by identifying and utilising available resources and support from the GPA guarantors and the wider international community, so as to enable a process that allows Zimbabweans to campaign for or against the draft constitution without fear or persecution.

To the Constitution Parliamentary Affairs (Select) Committee (COPAC):

3.  Pursue constitutional reform and other legislative measures that advance rule of law and overcome the legacy of political violence and impunity, including by promoting professional and accountable policing, removing the military’s involvement in internal policing and promoting effective parliamentary oversight of all security and intelligence structures.
 
To the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) as GPA Guarantors:

4.  Endorse at head of state level in both organisations the 31 March 2011 SADC troika communiqué calling for constitutional reform before elections and a roadmap to enable credible elections to take place.
5.  Initiate, including by deploying an AU exploratory mission, a comprehensive assessment of violence and related matters in Zimbabwe to determine whether conditions are conducive for free and fair elections, as envisaged under the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance and the SADC “Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections”.
6.  Make recommendations to assist in the achievement of such conditions, including with respect to the need to ensure that the country’s security forces are not undermined by renegade elements.
7.  Support the COPAC process and broader GPA reform initiatives through technical and financial assistance, as well as the deployment of personnel from the region where feasible; and review, in coordination with the political parties, the existing legislative agenda to identify GPA reform priorities that have not been addressed, with a focus on enabling conditions for credible elections.
8.  Ensure that the facilitation team’s roadmap recommends a revision of the GPA’s internal monitoring and review mechanisms, in particular that:
a) JOMIC should have a more active role to deal with cases of political violence, including oversight of investigations by national police and producing regular public reports to the GPA signatories, who in turn should be obliged to respond publicly in writing; and
b) JOMIC reports should provide a basis for the Periodic Review Mechanism’s reporting and recommendations as set out in Article 23 of the GPA.
9.  Affirm that participation of civil society organisations is necessary to provide full legitimacy to the COPAC and other GPA reform processes and to this end establish a channel for direct access to the SADC facilitator for civil society actors to raise concerns about implementation of the GPA.

To the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP):

10.  Ensure full accountability and transparency in the use of its funds in support of constitution-making so as to create greater confidence in the process.
 
To the Government of South Africa:
11.  Seek to use the South Africa-Zimbabwe Joint Permanent Commission on Defence and Security to undertake an assessment of defence and security conditions in Zimbabwe and their related implications for South Africa.
 
To the wider International Community, including the UN and European Union:
12.  Assist, including by active diplomatic engagement, the efforts of the GPA guarantors to ensure and facilitate processes and institutions supporting the development of democratic and accountable governance.
13.  Support and strengthen civil society’s efforts to provide coherent, systematic and accurate reports and analysis of violence, including by improving verification methods, identifying priority concerns, developing clear and effective channels of communication and, ultimately, by bringing findings to the attention of local, regional and international policymakers, institutions and media. (…)
 
 
 

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